VII International Conference “Primakov Readings”, held in Moscow on June 8-10, 2021

Report from Ulugbek Khasanov

Prof. Dr. Alexander A. Dynkin, President of Primakov Institute – IMEMO, Russian Academy of Sciences; Prof.Dr. Irina D. Zvyagelskaya (IMEMO); Eldor T. Aripov, Director of Institute of Strategic and Regional Studies under the President of Uzbekistan and Dr Ulugbek Khasanov (UWED)

On June 8-10, 2021, the VII Primakov Readings were held in Moscow and were devoted to the analysis of modern challenges to the world order. Primakov Readings is an international forum of experts, diplomats and politicians dedicated to the memory of the scientist and statesman, Academician E. M. Primakov. The purpose of the forum is to create a regular international discussion platform for public discussion of the most pressing problems of the world economy, politics and international security with the participation of leading representatives of international research and expert-analytical centers. The idea of holding the Primakov Readings belongs to the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, who initiated and opened the Forum in 2016. Chairman of the Organizing Committee-Assistant to the President of the Russian Federation Yu.Ushakov. The Forum is known for its high representation and significant academic and practical share for shaping the understanding and development of the basic principles of public diplomacy in modern World.

Bakhtiyar Mustafaev, Deputy Director of International Institute of Central Asia, Dr Ulugbeck Khasanov (UWED) and Yauheni Preiherman, Founder and Director of the Minsk Dialogue Council on International Relations

The 7th session of the current Forum, held on June 9, 2021, was dedicated to the theme ‘Central Asia at the crossroads: Competition or partnership?’ The moderator was Sergey Lebedev, Chairman of the Executive Committee – Executive Secretary of the CIS. The speakers were: Eldor Aripov (Director of the Institute for Strategic and Interregional Studies under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan), Kairat Kelimbetov (Chairman of the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan), Nandan Unnikrishnan (Honorary Researcher of the Indian Research Center Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi), Stanislav V. Zhukov (Deputy Director for Scientific Work of IMEMO. Primakova RAS, Doctor of Economics), Irina Zvyagelskaya (Head of the Laboratory “Center for Middle Eastern Studies” IMEMO RAS, Doctor of Economics, Professor).

In his speech, Aripov noted that the strengthening of partnership between the countries of the region began in 2017 at a conference in Samarkand, where a communique was signed on the intention to resolve disputed issues through compromise. As he stressed, this was also helped by the new regional policy of the President of Uzbekistan, who decided to reverse negative trends and prejudices. Many issues were resolved with Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan on water use, border delimitation and demarcation, and energy exchange. A completely new political atmosphere has emerged in the region. He also drew attention to the fact that a trend has been formed for the development of regional industrial cooperation. Today, about 60 million people live there, and a new consumer market is maturing in the region, which is not yet fully open to the world economy, the panelist noted. «In 2020, there was a decline in regional trade, but from 2016 to 2019, it increased by 56%. Uzbekistan’s trade turnover with these countries has doubled. The inflow of foreign investment to Central Asia increased by 40%. The region’s share of total investment in the world increased from 1.6% to 2.5%. The number of foreign tourists has doubled. We are finishing negotiations on the Silk Visa with Kazakhstan: tourists will be able to freely visit Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan” Aripov said.

The Central Asian countries do not face the choice of competition or partnership, just as they do not choose between Russia and China, said Irina Zvyagelskaya, head of the Center for Middle East Studies at IMEMO RAS. She drew attention to the fact that the region is interested in a transport and logistics breakthrough to new markets, primarily in South Asia. Afghanistan is not only a problem, but also a new opportunity, if the situation stabilizes. A big role, in her opinion, can be played by Russian railways, which are participants in the construction of a route through Afghanistan. They plan to join the project “Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, China”.

President of the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan Kairat Kelimbetov spoke about the achievements of the countries of the region in the field of transport logistics. As he noted, within the framework of the “One Belt — One Road” project, thousands of kilometers of railways were built that connected the border of China in the direction of Russia and the ports of the Caspian Sea. This allows us to interact with the world’s largest economies-the EU and China. The trade between them amounts to $ 700 billion. In his opinion, in 10 years the region will attract about $ 70 billion. The opening economy of Uzbekistan and the liberalization of foreign trade force a new look at the whole of Central Asia.

Minsk Dialogue Virtual Forum ‘The Belarus Crisis: Mapping the uncertainty in regional security, 25-27 November 2020, in strategic partnership with the GCRF COMPASS project and Konrad Adenauer Foundation

The year 2020 has shaken the world. The COVID-19 pandemic has brought tremendous shocks to all parts of the globe and has disrupted international relations on a scale unprecedented since World War II. Besides the direct damage that the pandemic has caused to global health and economy, it has aggravated various preexisting national and international problems and accelerated transformational processes in the international system. As a result, the whole world has plunged into great uncertainty. Belarus is one of many examples of the pandemic’s disruptive effects at a national level. While only a while ago it appeared one of the most politically stable countries in Eastern Europe, today Belarus finds itself amidst a dramatic political crisis. Although its causes are multifold, the state’s and society’s reaction to the pandemic became a decisive catalyst. Without a doubt, the Belarus crisis will have serious implications not only for the country’s internal development and foreign relations but also for regional security. In recent years, Minsk has played a constructive regional role by offering itself as a neutral venue for peace talks and promoting security initiatives, which aimed at de-escalating military and political tensions between the East and the West. If Belarus is no longer able to perform such a role, regional actors should brace themselves for even more uncertainty already in the months to come. Under these exceptional circumstances, the Minsk Dialogue Virtual Forum offers a geopolitically unbiased platform where some of the brightest minds from the international expert community will engage in a frank discussion about the multiple crises unfolding in front of our eyes and their implications for regional security. While we are unable to fully solve uncertainty, the Forum will map out possible routes towards international cooperation for the sake of peace and stability in Eastern Europe and wider Eurasia. This year, the virtual forum will focus on the following main topics:

● The Belarus crisis: What implications will it have for security in Eastern Europe and Wider Eurasia, as well as for Minsk’s relations with Russia and the West?

● The World HandCOV’d: How will the pandemic reshape international institutions and key state actors in Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian security?

● Eastern Europe and Central Eurasia in 2021: Strategic stability and challenges for regional security.