Modelling changes in abundance of species over space and time in island ecosystems

Telfair Skink (c) Nik Cole

Islands are hot-beds of evolution, diversity and endemism but are highly threatened.  The Mauritius Islands Restoration Programme is a collaborative project between the Durrell Wildlife Conservation Trust, Mauritian Wildlife Foundation and National Parks & Conservation Service to restore island ecosystems in the Republic of Mauritius. Since 2006, threatened reptile species have been reintroduced back to islands to rebuild lost Mauritian communities where major threats have been removed. These actions are enhancing the distribution and abundance of threatened species and have already prevented at least one extinction event. To ensure success, field staff need to closely monitor these communities, to make appropriate management decisions for their ongoing restoration. This project will determine a robust modelling approach that enables changes in abundance of Mauritian reptiles and birds to be detected over time and space and to inform optimal study and will provide guidance for conservation managers.

Objectives:

  1. determine the relative information contained in the variety of historical data types obtained from Gunner’s Quoin and Round Island;
  2. conduct a pilot study implementing new combinations of data collection in the field and evaluate how challenges encountered should be offset by comparison with limitations of statistical power of the resulting models;
  3. develop an optimal survey strategy for the Mauritian ecosystem, factoring in costs and field site complexity and forecast statistical power expected from survey protocols;
  4. identify how the models developed for Mauritius can be generalised to be applicable to other island eco-systems;
  5. build a statistical toolbox of R programs and associated handbook for conservation practitioners with limited quantitative/R background and run a training workshop in Mauritius.

This is Ulrike Naumann’s PhD project.  The project is supervised by Dr Rachel McCrea (University of Kent), Dr Diana Cole (University of Kent) and Dr Nik Cole (Mauritian Wildlife Foundation).